6-K 1 investorpresotext2026.htm investorpresotext2026
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington,D.C. 20549
_________________
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATEISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date: October 29, 2026
UBS Group AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-36764
UBS AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive offices)
Commission File Number: 1-15060
Indicate by check mark whether the registrants file or will file annual reports under cover of Form
20-F or Form 40-
F.
Form 20-F
☒
Form 40-F
☐
This Form 6-K consists of the transcripts of the of UBS Group 3Q26 Earnings call remarks and
Analyst Q&A, which appear immediately following this page.
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Third quarter 2026 results
28 October 2026
Speeches by
Sergio P.Ermotti
, Group Chief Executive Officer,and
ToddTuckner
,
Group Chief Financial Officer
Including analyst Q&A session
Transcript.
Numbers for slides refer to the third quarter 2026 results presentation. Materials and a webcast
replay are available at
www.ubs.com/investors
Sergio P.Ermotti
Slide 3 – Key messages
Thank you, Sarah and good morning, everyone.
In anincreasingly complexmarket environment,our strongthird-quarter performanceonce againdemonstrated
the benefits of our diversified global business model and disciplined execution.
We remained focused onwhat we couldcontrol, deepening clientrelationships, prudently managingresources and
risks, and finalizing the integrationof Credit Suisse while delivering onour related financial ambitions. Witha year-
to-date return onCET1 capitalof 17%,we areincreasingly confidentin our abilityto outperform our2026 exit-
rate return target. And we remain on track to achieve our exit rate cost/income ratio target of less than 70%.
Our globaldiversification remainsa keysource ofstrength andmomentum. InAPAC,our OneBank approachis
drivingyear-to-datepre-taxprofitmarginstoward50%andintheUS,ourstrategicinvestmentscontinueto
translate intoconsistently higherlevels ofprofitabilityand growth.In Switzerland,the valueclients placein our
localand globalcapabilities isincreasinglyevident inour results,and wegranted orrenewedaround40 billion
Swiss francsof loansto businessesand households.Meanwhile inEMEA, ourenhanced scaleis translatinginto
stronger operating leverage in the region.
More broadly,the breadthand depth ofour offeringallowed us toattract 55 billionof inflows inGlobal Wealth
Management.Wealso sawrecorddemand forour UnifiedGlobal Alternativesstrategies, furtherbolstering our
scale andgrowth momentum.In theInvestment Bank,we improvedon ouralready best-in-classefficiency,with
record third-quarterperformance reflecting thestrength of ourEquities franchise andour ability tocapture high-
return opportunities, particularly in Asia.
Asweenterthefourthquarter,investorsentimentremainsmeasuredamidelevatedmacroeconomicvolatility,
ongoing geopolitical tensionsand political uncertainty,with consequential elections,including in theUS. Against
this backdrop, we are staying close to clients to help them navigate market conditions and capture opportunities.
Our profitability andbalance sheet forall seasons givesus the capacityto do thiswhile also deliveringon our capital
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return plans.Wehave repurchased4.8 billiondollars ofsharesand accrued2.8 billionfor ourdividend year-to-
date. Wehave alreadyachieved theambition weset earlyin theintegration journeyfor 2026with totalcapital
returns to exceed pre-acquisition levels. Over the next three months, we intend to repurchase1.2 billion dollars of
shares, completing our current program. As usual, we will outlineour capital return plans for 2027with our fourth
quarter results.
Turningto the integration ofCredit Suisse. Weare in thelast mile, and thefinish line is insight. Nearly alllegacy
applications are nolonger in use,with 90% fullydecommissioned and assaid, we areclose to achievingour related
financial ambitions. Of all wehave accomplished over the lastthree years, I remainvery proud of how ourpeople
came together undera common cultureand vision. Ourrecent employee surveyresults continue toexceed financial
servicesbenchmarksacrossallcomparablemeasures,withoverallsentimentremainingstrongandbroadly
consistent across UBS and former Credit Suisse employees.
That sense ofshared purpose hasbeen a drivingforce behind oursuccess. More importantly, it givesme confidence
thatwecancontinuetoevolveasafirmandunlockthegrowthopportunitiesthatlieahead.Increasingly,
technology and AI areamplifying the ability ofour people toserve clients and operateas a moreintegrated firm.
Ourprogresswasrecentlyvalidatedbythe2026EvidentAIIndex,withUBSrecognizedasthegloballeaderin
responsible AI and talent development in banking.
Of course, anotherdefining factor forthe futureof UBS isthe ongoing parliamentaryprocess relatedto banking
regulationinSwitzerland.Iamconvincedthat,aswasthecaseinMarch2023,weareonceagaininacritical
juncture, where the course for the coming decades will be set for the Swiss financial center.
September’s outcome in theUpper House is veryconcerning. We have madeevery effort to engage andcontribute
constructively to create a basis for a truly democratic process. Our goalhas been, and remains, to reach a solution
that balances financial stability, taxpayer protection and competitiveness. Unfortunately,the latest proposal on the
table also fails toachieve that balance.It continues to disregardthe serious concerns raisedby the overwhelming
majority ofrespondents tothe consultation,and wouldexcessively tightencapital requirementsthat arealready
among themost stringentglobally. Just astroubling isthe failureto considerthe consequencesfor ourshareholders,
who remain the first line of defensein periods of stress and whosecritical financial support during the acquisition
helped protect Switzerland’s reputation and financial stability.
WewillcontinuetoengageconstructivelyinthehopethatParliamentwillreachasolutionthatsupportsthe
country’sfinancialstabilitywithoutimposingunduecostsonUBS’sshareholders,clientsandemployees,and
without impacting its long-term competitive position.
The ongoing debate is generating considerable attention,leading to a lot of speculation, opinionsand requests for
clarifications from allof our stakeholders. Wedo not intend toaddress everything. Buton one topic,we want to
beveryclear.ForUBS,thetoppriorityistoprotectthelong-terminterestsofourshareholders,clientsand
employeesaroundtheworld.Inaverycompetitiveenvironment,itisessentialtobeabletocontinuetogrow
sustainably while remaining strategicallycommitted to our diversified businessmodel and our global andregional
footprint, which allows us to create value for all of our stakeholders.
After more than three years of disciplined execution, we areon track to complete the integration by year-end and
have strong momentum across our businesses.
With that, let me hand over to Todd.
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ToddTuckner
Slide 5 – PBT +14% on revenue growth and positive operating leverage
Thank you Sergio, and good morning everyone.
Inthethirdquarter,wedeliveredreportednetprofitof2.7billionandearningspershareof85cents.Onan
underlyingbasis,ourpre-taxprofitwas4.1billion,up14%,withareturnonCET1capitalof16.7%anda
cost/income ratio of68.7%. Total revenues increased 10%, outpacing expense growth.Within ourcore franchises,
excluding litigation, we delivered 4 points of positive operating leverage on 3% higher revenues and lower costs.
Slide 6 – Net profit 2.7bn driven by PBT growth across our businesses
Moving to slide6. This quarter’sstrong performance was underpinnedby year-on-year profit growth in eachof our
businesses, alongside continued progress on the integration, now in its final stages.
Reportedresultsincludedintegrationcostsof452millionandachargeof346millionfromtherepurchaseof
around 10 billion of high-costCredit Suisse liabilities. The debt repurchase acceleratesthe reduction of the funding
drag in Non-core and Legacy,while also supporting net interest income in GWM and P&C going forward.
The effectivetax ratein the quarterwas 24.7%,slightly elevatedas thelegal provisionsrecorded inNCL arenot
expected to result in a tax benefit.
Slide 7 – Additional efficiencies identified, ~13.7bn cumulative gross cost saves expected
Turningto ourcost updateon slide7. With 13.2billion ofgross costreductions alreadydelivered, including0.6
billion in the third quarter,we expect to deliver 0.5 billion more in the fourth quarter, bringing the total to around
13.7 billion – above our 13and a half billion ambition. Accelerateddelivery of integration milestones has enabled
us to identify additional synergies, supporting this expected outperformance.
Capturing these opportunities entailsadditional costs. As wecomplete the program at year-end, we expectaround
0.5 billionof integration-relatedexpenses inthe fourthquarter, bringing thefinal cost-to-achievemultiple toaround
1.1timesathistoricalFXrates–inlinewithguidanceandastrongoutcomegiventheintegration’sscaleand
complexity.
Totalheadcount at quarter-end was 110 thousand, 2% lower sequentially and 30% below our 2022 baseline.
Similarly,over thesame period,we’ve reducedthe Group’soperating expensesby almost30% whenexcluding
litigation, variable compensation and currency effects.
Astheintegrationprogramconcludes,ourfocusshiftsfromcapturingrelatedsynergiestosustainingbotha
structurallyefficientcost baseand disciplinedresourceallocation. Together,thesegenerate capacityfor growth
and attractive capital returns to shareholders.
Slide 8 – Our balance sheet for all seasons is a key pillar of our strategy
Turningto slide8. Asof theend ofSeptember,our balancesheet forall seasonsconsisted of1.7 trillionin total
assets.Loanbalancesanddepositsweredown1%sequentially,aspositivenetnewlendinganddepositflows
across GWM and P&C were more than offset by FX translation.
Credit-impaired exposures remained at 1%, while Group credit loss expense was 114 million, corresponding to an
annualized cost ofrisk of 7basis points, unchangedfrom the priorquarter. Tangiblebook value pershare increased
slightly sequentially,as profit in the quarter was largely offset by net charges in OCI and share repurchases.
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Overall,wecontinuetomaintainastrongandresilientbalancesheetwithtotalloss-absorbingcapacityof
187 billion, a net stable funding ratio of 115% and an LCR of 179%.
Slide 9 – Strong capital generation and discipline while funding capital return ambitions
Turningto slide9. OurCET1 capitalratio atthe endof Septemberwas 14.7%and ourCET1 leverageratio was
4.6%. Our common equitytier 1 capital increasedby 0.7 billion inthe quarter,as earnings generation waspartly
offset bydividend accruals,reserves forshare-award hedgesand currencyeffects. Risk-weightedassets andleverage
exposuredecreasedsequentiallyby8billionand59billion,respectively,reflectinglowerassetlevelsandFX
translation.
Looking ahead,we expectto end2026 witha CET1capital ratioat orvery closeto ourtarget ofaround 14%,
including apotential accrualfor theinitial portionof intended2027 sharebuybacks. AsSergio mentioned,next
quarter we’ll update our capital return ambitions for 2027 as part of our strategic update.
UBS AG’s standalone fully applied CET1capital ratio at quarter-endincreased modestly to 14.5%, as3Q earnings
and the effect of lower RWA were largely offset by a dividend accrual of 1.8 billion.
Slide 10 – Global Wealth Management
Turning to our business divisions, and startingon slide 10 withGlobal Wealth Management. GWM delivered apre-
tax profitof 2 billion,up 11%. Excludingnearly 200 millionof litigation-related releasesthat benefited theprior-
year quarter, pre-tax profitincreased by 25%, with double-digit growth across all regions.
Clients are increasingly turning to UBS for our advice and global capabilities – and entrusting us with more of their
wealth. Netnew assetswere 55billion, representinga 4.5%growth rateand bringing year-to-dateNNA to128
billion. Momentum was broad-based across regions, led by APACand the Americas. Invested assets increased 1%
sequentially, as flow performance was offset byFX translation. Atthe same time,demand for our CIO-ledsolutions
remained strong, driving 13 billion ofnet new fee-generating assets inthe quarter, with momentum across our My
Way discretionary mandates, US Advisory, and alternatives. Client activity also supported 6 billion ofnet new loans
inthequarter,drivenby securities-basedlending.Weattracted2 billionofnet newdeposits,withinflows into
fixed-term instruments more than offsetting outflows from current accounts.
Moving toour regions.In theAmericas, wecontinued toexecute withdiscipline againstour strategicpriorities,
delivering further improvements inprofitability and growth. Pre-tax profit increasedby 28%, with a profitmargin
of 16%, upmore than 2 percentage points,supported by record revenues. Duringthe quarter, we added 17 billion
of net new assets,driven by strong same-storeperformance. Net new loanswere 4 billion, reflectinginvestments
to strengthen our banking capabilities and extending the region's run of positive quarterly lending growth.
In Asia Pacific, we delivered pre-tax profit growth of19% and a profit margin of 45%, while expanding our client
advisor team and investing in capabilities across priority markets and client segments. Net new assets and net new
fee-generating assets grew atannualized rates of9% and 8%,respectively. Over 20 billion of NNFGAover the past
12monthsdrovea20%increaseinrecurringrevenues.Theseresultsdemonstratehowdeepermandate
penetration,strongerportfolioconstructionandabroaderofferingareimprovingclientoutcomesandfurther
strengthening the durability of our revenues – across GWM, and particularly in Asia Pacific.
Excludinglitigation,EMEAincreasedpre-taxprofitby39%,benefitingfrom13percentagepointsofpositive
operating leverage anddelivering a profitmargin of 37%.The regionalso generated9 billion ofnet new assets,
reflecting solid underlying businessmomentum and the growingbenefits of our fullyintegrated platform following
the completion of the client account migration earlier this year.
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The benefits of the Swiss platform migration areparticularly evident in our wealth franchise in Switzerland, where
pre-taxprofitexcludinglitigationincreased34%,reflectingbroad-basedgrowthacrossrevenuelinesand
disciplinedcostmanagement.TheSwissteamalsomaintainedstrongmomentuminattractingclientassets,
generating 12 billion of NNA in the quarter, equivalent to 5% annualized growth.
Turningto divisionalrevenues, whichincreased by8%. Recurringnet feeincome grewby 9%to 3.8billion, on
positive market performance and over 70 billion of net new fee-generating assets over the past 12 months.
Transaction-based income increasedby 4%to 1.3 billion,supported by demandfor structured productsand wealth
planning.IntheAmericas,transactionalrevenueswere11%higher,reflectingstrongclientengagementand
continued collaboration with the Investment Bank, while APAC delivered 2% growth against an exceptional prior-
year quarter.
Net interest income of 1.8 billionrose 8% year-over-year and was modestly up over the prior quarter. Sequentially,
higher depositmargins andloan volumeswere broadlyoffset bycurrent accountshifts intofixed-term deposits.
For the fourth quarter, we expect higher rates and lending growth tosupport a low single-digit sequential increase
in GWM net interest income, also accounting for modest deposit mix effects.
Operatingexpensesroseby6%.Whenexcludingvariablecompensation,litigationandcurrencyeffects,costs
declined by 4%.
Slide 11 – Personal & Corporate Banking (CHF)
Turningto Personal andCorporate Banking onslide 11. P&Cdelivered itsstrongest quarter sincethe acquisition,
with pre-tax profit of 813 million Swiss francs, up 22%, and an underlying pre-tax return on equity above 18%.
With all clients nowon a single platform andsubstantial progress in retiring legacy infrastructure, we are capturing
meaningful cost efficiencies. Thecompletion of clientmigrations earlier thisyear has also freed-upcapacity for P&C
to deepenclient relationshipsand capturemarket share.As aresult, wesaw strongmomentum acrossthe franchise.
We attracted netnew clients,grew both loansand deposits,and generatedannualized netnew investmentproduct
growth of 7%.
This supported a 4% increasein revenues, while disciplined executionconverted that momentum into 9points of
positiveoperatingleverage.Despitethecontinuedzero-interest-rateenvironment,netinterestincomewas2%
higher year-on-yearand 3% higher sequentially,driven by strong lendingmomentum. For the fourth quarter,we
expectP&C netinterestincomeinSwissfranctermstoincreaseslightly,supported bycontinued balance-sheet
growth.
Non-interest revenuesincreased 5%, drivenby Personal Banking,which benefited fromhigher custody,mandate
and card fees. In Corporate & Institutional Clients, strength in payments and trade finance offset softer syndicated
finance activity, although the pipeline remainsstrong.
Net credit lossexpense was27 millionSwiss francs,as chargeson non-performingloans were partlyoffset by model
releases onthe performingportfolio, reflectingthe resilienceof ourSwiss corporateloan bookamid macroeconomic
uncertainty.Forthefourthquarter,assumingtheSwisscreditoutlookremainsconstructive,weexpectfurther
model releases to partly offset seasonally higher Stage 3 charges.
Operating expenses declined 5%, driven by continued synergy realization.
Slide 12 – Asset Management
Turning toslide 12. Asset Management deliveredpre-tax profit of 300 million,up 6%, and a cost/income ratioof
62%, reflecting improved operating efficiency and continued growth in our priority initiatives.
Excluding the O’Connor exit, total revenues and management fees were broadly stable.
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Net newmoney wasnegative 5billion, reflectingMoney Marketoutflows andinstitutional portfoliorebalancing
following the recent completion of our custodyplatform consolidation. This was partly offset bypositive flows into
ETFs, SMAs andUnified Global Alternatives.Within UGA, weattracted a record12 and ahalf billion ofquarterly
new commitments across GWMand Asset Management,bringing invested assetsto 371 billionand demonstrating
the strength of our integrated distribution model.
Operating expenses declined14%, or 11%excluding O’Connor,reflecting continuedbenefits fromour platform
investments. Weexpect theexit tohave abroadly similarimpact onthe 4Qrevenueand costcomparison, with
limited effects thereafter.
Slide 13 – Investment Bank
Onto slide 13. The Investment Bankdelivered pre-tax profit of854 million, up 9%, and apre-tax return on equity
of 18%, combining strong earnings growth with disciplined use of capital.
Global Bankingrevenueswere670 million,down 21%against arecordthirdquarter lastyear.Capital Markets
revenues declined 6%,outperforming the feepool. A 44% increasein ECM wasmore than offsetby lower LCM
revenues, reflecting lowersponsor activity. The growth inECM, spanningall regions, reflects continuedmomentum
in oneof ourcore strategicpriorities andstrengthens ourbroader Equitiesfranchise. Advisoryrevenues declined
44% froma recordprior-yearquarter,also reflectingtransaction timing. Thiscame amid afee pool thatremains
concentrated in mega-cap transactions, where balance sheet commitment plays a more prominent role.
Looking ahead, client engagement and origination remain strong across Advisory and Capital Markets, supporting
a robustpipeline. Assuming constructivemarket conditions, weexpect this totranslate into sequentialgrowth in
Global Banking revenues in the fourth quarter.
Global Marketsrevenues rose 17%to athird-quarter record of2.5 billion,with 3Q-highsacross APAC, theAmericas
and Switzerland, and led by broad-based strength in Equities. Equities grew 22%, with strong performance across
Financing, Cash andDerivatives, supported by higherclient balances, market sharegains and healthy clientactivity.
FRC was 1% higher, with growth in FXand Credit and a gainon a strategic investmentpartly offset by lower Rates
revenues.
For thefourth quarter, we expecta more typicalsequential seasonalmoderation intransaction volumes.In addition,
a strong prior-year period, which included a gain on disposal, may weigh on the year-on-yearcomparison.
Operating expenses increased by 5%, driven by higher non-personnel costs.
Slide 14 – NCL wind-down almost complete
Onslide14,Non-coreandLegacygeneratedthird-quarterpre-taxprofitof360million.Thislargelyreflected
continued progress in addressinglegacy cases, with net income from thesettlement of certain legal matters more
than offsetting 275 million of litigation charges.
Operating expensesexcluding litigationdeclined 69%to 91million, bringingcumulative costreductions against
the 2022 baseline above90%. Building on this progress,we now expect to exitthe year with around300 million
of annualized operating expenses, excluding litigation, with further reductions thereafter.
Risk-weighted assetsdeclined 0.4billion sequentially, drivenby furtherreductions inthe creditand macroportfolios.
Both costs and RWA are already below our year-endambitions.
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Slide 15 – Group Items
A briefwordon GroupItemson slide15. Thereportedpre-taxloss of740 millionprimarilyreflectsthe liability
management transaction discussed earlier and 265 million of own credit and hedging losses on accrual-accounted
positions, mainly due to the sharp rise in US dollar interest rates. Excluding the temporary P&L volatility from these
own credit and hedging positions, the underlying pre-tax loss was 138 million, largely related to DTA funding.
Slide 16 – Well positionedto outperform our 2026exit rate underlying RoCET1target of ~15% andachieve <70%
underlying cost / income ratio
Toconclude,strongrevenuesanddisciplinedcostmanagementdroveareturnonCET1capitalof17%anda
cost/income ratio of 70% overthe first nine months, positioningus well to achieve our2026 exit ambitions. As the
integration concludes, we’re focused on building onthis progress, investing in our strongest growth opportunities,
and sustaining earnings growth and attractive returns for our shareholders.
With that, let’s open for questions.
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Analyst Q&A (CEO and CFO)
Antonio Reale, Bank of America
Hi. Good morning everyone. It's Antonio from Bank of America. I have a couple of questions if I may, please.
The first one is on your latest thoughts on the capital proposal that's being currently discussed by Parliament. Of
course I've heard Sergio's remarks. There was a WAK-N meeting yesterdayand the day before. There seems to be
a few scenarios on the table based on what we read on the press, at least. I think you've been very clear in your
views on both 90% CET1 backing and the 50/50 option. Now, what would a 75% scenario mean for UBS? I
guess the capital costs of higher requirements goes well beyond the mere billion dollar charge. But I'm keen to
hear your thoughts on this. And related to that, how do you and the Board of UBS view the cost of any
contingency actions here, versus the potential long-term implications that higher capital requirements may have
on your ability to compete as a global business? So that would be my first question.
And then, if I may relate it to net new asset growth in the US, we've seen a positive surprise this quarter. So what
do you see as the key driver of US growth now that you have a banking license? And we are through what seems
to be the worst part of FA departures from here?Thank you.
ToddTuckner
Hey Antonio. Let me start with the second question. So look, we're continuing to see the benefits of our
investments in the US in advisors, our platform and capabilities, and the client experience, as evidenced by – as I
mentioned in my comments – strong same-store flows and improving advisor productivity,as well as continued
accretion in our banking KPls and normalized net recruiting metrics.
Regarding the latter,as mentioned previously,there is a time lag in reported flows, headcount and production
from FA movement that could have an, albeit tapering, effect in our metrics. But we see recruited joiners and
announced leavers returning to more typical levels at UBS, including relative to the broader industry.So all of
these things are helping to drive the improved NNA that we saw this quarter and making the Americas a
meaningful contributor to full year 2026 NNA for the division overall.
Sergio P.Ermotti
So on the capital proposal, I think that it's clear that the ongoing process now with the lower house is leading
into a new round of coverage and speculations about potential other changes to the 90% proposal made in the
upper house. I mean, to be honest, I don't think that it's appropriate for us to go into discussing every single
number that is thrown out. Youmake a reference to one of those numbers and one that we publicly,myself and
our Chairman, commented on was the 50/50 proposal, which, while being still a very expensive outcome
considering our current capital position and the true lessons learned of what happened with Credit Suisse, we felt
that the 50/50 proposal was balancing the needs of financial stability and reinforcing the current regulatory
requirements while allowing us to preserve a competitive position going forward. So I will not comment any
further on any numbers, as I mentioned. In respect of contingency plans, listen, we're not going to engage into
debating internally and externally about what to do until things are finally approved and actually determined. It is
clear that there is no rush for us to act or to take actions that are not in the interest of shareholders and clients,
because it's going to take time to implement this new regulation. But of course we're going to, and we will
assess, and we are assessing, what are the long term consequences for our ability to compete out of Switzerland,
because it's very clear that for our clients, they do appreciate Swissness like we do, and, like us, believe we
contribute to the Swiss system. But a passport is not enough nowadays. People are expecting also quality of
products, competitive pricing, and an ability to serve them globally,as we do. Therefore, I think that it's
premature for us to really think about the long term consequences of what will happen.
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Antonio Reale, Bank of America
Thank you.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first is just on the costs, I just wondered if you can confirm [or]
give us some indication about what to expect for Q4, as I guess Q3 was relatively strong. We should have a good
cost control in Q4; we have additional cost savings coming in, but also seasonality. So the -1%, is thereanything
you would highlight that we should be a bit more cautious on the Q4 trends?
And then I just wondered, in terms of client engagement, obviously in Q4 the strategy has been very different
versus Q3, and I was wondering if you can talk a bit more about the client engagement you are seeing in your
wealth management operation, aside from the seasonality.Thank you very much.
ToddTuckner
Hi Anke, thanks for the questions. So first on costs, as you say – I think you summarized, actually, the 4Q outlook
pretty well. On the one hand, we'll continue to see the benefits of the integration, just given the integration costs
we have been incurring, and therefore the saves that will become evident through our OpEx as we've been
demonstrating each quarter. We'vealways said that we'll run through the tape on 2026 and continue the work
until the very end. That's still the plan, so we should still see some of those efficiencies and synergies coming
through in 4Q. And as you said as well, 4Q does have some seasonality aspects in them. The bank levy is one
example, but also just often we see some uptick in costs sequentially. So nothing I would call out. But you would
expect that those trends of continued cost efficiency,offset perhaps by some uptick in seasonality,will inform the
performance in 4Q on costs.
On clients, look it's fair to say that the 4Q market environment thus far for investors has been mixed. When you
look at, say, things like rising correlations, deterioration in creditconditions, higher bond yields and renewed
inflation concerns – you just take a few factors – they're leading to more defensive positioning among our clients.
And geopolitical developments, including elections, are adding to this more measured sentiment. So we still see
opportunities to help clients diversify, manage risk, and put money to work selectively,including in more
attractive fixed income yields. So we'll stay close to clients and capitalize on the opportunities that present
themselves in this environment at present.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Good morning, everybody, and thank you for taking my questions. First, a quick one just on the US. When should
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we expect the national bank charter to begin to translate into a broader US product offering and perhaps sort of
meaningful deposit growth? I think I've just sort of lost track on timings on that topic.
And then second, to come back to the domicile point. There is an interesting tension within the Group, because
on the one hand, businesses such as the IB are relatively capital-intensive, where the Swiss domicile may be less
strategically important, while on the other hand you've got more capital-light businesses such as GWM which
arguably derive significant value from that Swiss brand. So how do you weigh those competing considerations,
and I guess also the strategic value of the interlinkages between those two distinct types of businesses, when
you're assessing whether Switzerland does remain the optimal domicile for the Group, as you said earlier,from
the perspective of shareholders, clients and also other stakeholders? Thank you.
ToddTuckner
Chris, on the banking charter. So with the license in hand, we arenow in implementation mode and do expect
that we'll be rolling out the first incremental array of capabilities as part of what the banking license allows and
supports in our US bank during 2027. So we'll start from the beginning of the year piloting things, and we expect
to ramp up over the course of 2027. And we expect that we'll leverage, really what we've been demonstrating, I
think, over the last many quarters, which is improved NII from improved banking capabilities within the current
legal construct that we operate within today. So we'rereally encouraged by having now the national bank
charter to support an expanded offering, and what that could mean in enhancing NII and accreting pre-tax
margins.
Sergio P.Ermotti
Well, thanks, Chris. I think that kind of thematic has been discussed, I guess, over the last 15 years, in respect of
that tradeoff between having a pure wealth management business versus having an IB. Let me remind you that
we are also using a lot of financial resources to serve our households, and corporate clients, SME clients in
Switzerland – which, by the way, also highly benefit from having an in-house investment bank that helps them in
managing all the aspects when it goes into raising capital, funding, doing FX transactions at a very competitive
level. As you know, we are one of the top FX traders, we are a leading house in equities, in capital markets. And
in that sense, we add value to that.
In respect of wealth management, I mean, it's quite clear.And I guess you know well that the correlation
between IPOs and disposal of stakes, hedging of stakes that are going through the engines of the Investment
Bank, are critical elements in helping us to gather assets, not only in terms of [the] net new money and net new
assets you see every quarter. If you look at the amount of assets we have in custody that are not yet free to be
traded, they are another example of how the Investment Bank not only delivers services and capabilities that
differentiate ourselves from pure wealth management players, more than justifying this selective, vertical look
into each single business as I mentioned.
In the last ten, fifteen years, we have been demonstrating that we can compete in the Investment Bank if we
focus on what we are good at, and this is our way to go. I don't think it has anything to do with the passport or
where we are based, providing that regulatory requirementsstay intact. So I don't think it's an option for us. And
if you look at the current proposed regulation, what in fact they are doing, they are not even penalizing business
segments. They are penalizing global reach. And if this is all about a way to look at shrinking ourselves into being
only a Swiss bank, well, I don't really see our flows of assets being only directed to Switzerland. Actually,we are
capturing flows in the US, you saw it this quarter. We capturebig flows in Asia for the last ten, fifteen years. So
being a bank that has a DNA of Swissness, that is rooted in Switzerland is a big advantage, but it's not the reason
why our clients are banking with us.
And by the way, Swissness was also the case in 2023. Let's remind of that. So we have been helping restoring
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that Swissness over the last few years with clear and concrete contributions.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Very clear.Thank you very much.
Andrew Coombs, Citi
Morning. One follow up and one fresh question. I appreciate that you really don’t want to debate the plans on
the new capital rules until it's confirmed. And it's perhaps slightly premature today,but given that you're going
into the 2027 planning cycle already – when you're thinking about how you allocate capital, and how you
allocate investments across the business, how are you taking into account the new potential capital rules, given
what it might mean for marginal returns in some of those segments?
And the second question, just a more specific question on OpEx. A lot of the savings at the back end of the
integration plan were always due to come through in P&C. We can see that now – big improvement in the OpEx
base down 50 million to 950 million Swiss francs in Q3. Should we expect it to now level out around that level? Is
that a new run rate, or is there room for further improvement in Q4 as those integration savings come through?
Thank you.
ToddTuckner
Andrew, hi. On OpEx, so in terms of synergies realized in the Swiss business, I would expect that we'll continue to
see some more room for crystallization of synergies in the fourth quarter as all the integration investments that
we've made on the platform crystallize and come through. And so I would expect that there's still upside to see in
4Q on a true underlying basis, which will reflect in our exit rate and as we move into 2027. So that's always been
the plan. It's good that you observe that that benefit is hitting through now, and I would expect that the
dynamics that have informed that outcome in 3Q are still in play for 4Q before we fully sunset integration at the
end of the year.
Sergio P.Ermotti
Yeah. Andrew,on the 2027-29 cycle, first of all as you know, the ordinance will be coming into effect, and start
to affect our capital, as of January 1st, 2029. And in respect of the new potential regulation that will affect the
foreign subsidiaries, [that] will come into force over,I would suspect, probably earliest in the very late part of ‘27
or in 2028, and will be implemented over the years. That's the reason why, as we mentioned before,we are not
under any pressure to change anything in our current successful business model. We need to really assess exactly
what it is before we take actions that may be then regret moves. So I think that you will see us presenting, at the
beginning of the year, our refreshedmedium-term plans which will embed the 2028-2029 outlook, considering
that, broadly speaking, the current regulation, other than the ordinance, as I said as of January 1st, 2029, will be
the one that is applicable. And we're not going to go into frontrunning any regulation for sure.
12
And by the way, as Toddmentioned, we are now also able, at the end of this integration process, to free up the
buffer on capital that we kept over the minimum requirements which was meant, number one, to help us to
navigate the integration and any unexpected delays in implementation, and a potential new regulation coming in.
So we have been very sensitive to that topic. But from January 1st, 2027, we're going to go into business as
usual.
Andrew Coombs, Citi
Thank you.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
Morning. Thanks very much. Two questions please. Firstly,on the US wealth management, you talked about the
lag effect, and you see that normalizing. Advisor numbers are shrinking again a little bit, which I assume is part of
that lag effect. When would you see advisor numbers normalizing? And what does normal look like, would that
be stable numbers or would it be slight growth, slight shrinkage? That would be interesting to know.
And then second question, unrelated. Is there any visibility on the litigation from Credit Suisse AT1holders? Is
there any visibility on when you get the decisions on that appeal? Well, the government is appealing, but
obviously with implications for the bank as well.
ToddTuckner
Thanks, Jeremy.Let me just take the second one quickly. No, no change there. As far as we know,decision not
before Q1 of 2027.
On the first one, you asked about the headcount dynamics in the wealth US business. So, quarter-on-quarter in
terms of reported headcount down slightly,under 1%. Again, as I mentioned, the lag effect is important because
that's really reflecting decisions and moves that were decided several months ago. We are seeing, as I mentioned
in my response to an earlier question I believe to Antonio, that we are seeing announced leavers and recruited
advisors normalizing in our book, in terms of historic trends. So we're seeing that already on an announced, or
effectively,trade date basis, we're already seeing that.
What does normal look like? I think it's fair to say that in the environment, there is still a move to independent
advisor shops and I think that you're seeing that across the industry.So I think a degree of net attrition is
probably the industry norm that you see, as opposed to it being net flat, I'd say as a general premise over the
long term. So for us, it would be kind of normal net attrition levels that we've seen historically in our book and
that we believe are aligned to industry levels. That to us is what normal looks like.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
That's really helpful. Thanks very much.
13
Giulia Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two on wealth management. So Asia: are you seeing
any impact from the recent changes in Chinese tax guidance? And in particular,could you disclose how big is
Hong Kong, as a percentage of total AUM or P&L, and how big is the trusts business for UBS?
And then the second question on the Americas. So PBT margin was already 16% this quarter, and I believe 16%
is the target for UBS for next year. And then your longer term target is high-teens, yet the benefit from the
banking license is yet to flow through. So could we expect that actually a 20% PBT margin is probably something
more achievable than you previously guided for? Thank you.
ToddTuckner
Thanks Giulia. So look on the second one, we were focused, obviously, on delivering on our current ambitions. As
you mentioned, we're ahead of schedule. We have still an 18% ambition for 2028 that we described to you
earlier this year. When we providethe update next quarter, we can consider how we look at the outlook. But we
were pleased with the development, where we are. But we're focused on delivering against our strategic
priorities in the Americas business.
In terms of the impact on some of recent regulatory developments in China – first, on the offshore direct
investments, we saw the final consultation paper was issued last week. We've been through that. We view the
changes as offering us strategic upside in the wealth business, considering that we see there the prospect of a
formal pathway for Chinese individuals to invest onshore wealth, and offshore direct and private market
opportunities. So while these changes are obviously subject to implementation and ongoing consultation, and
there are key questions relating to scope and application, it's too early to quantify,but we do see the ODI broadly
as strategically promising for our business. On what I can comment, in terms of the offshore trusts taxation
matter,as you were alluding to, last week was the close of the 90-day transition period for settling specified
historical offshore trust tax liabilities without late payment charges for Chinese investors. We expect the effect in
our book to be immaterial, and the 4Q impact on flows to be small.
Giulia Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley
That’s clear, thank you.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Yes,thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on capital. I think you mentioned looking ahead, the CET1
ratio could come in around 14% by 2027, sorry by year-end. And what you're seeing is clearly a lot of capital
build. And I just wanted to understand the main delta here of the 70 basis point decrease, is that mainly the
buyback in 2027, or what should be the drivers in that respect?
And then the second question I have is related to Asia. Clearly,we have seen slowdowns in transaction volumes
when we look at exchange data, and we know the client base generally is a little bit more market oriented – or
short term market oriented, I should say. How should we think about the impact of market conditions, in
particular on Asia, and in particular on transactions?
14
ToddTuckner
Thanks, Kian. So just to reiterate my comments, so we expect the capital ratio delivered with our 4Q results to be
at or very close to 14%. How's that? So that will, as I mentioned, [include] an accrual for capital returns at the
end of the year. That will inform wherewe are relative to how we perform in 4Q. So we're not specifically
guiding on the level of the accrual, but we are saying that, when thinking and seeing the current environment
and the outlook in 2027, and our plans and considering our intentions in 2027, at least in part, the portion of
capital returns we can commit to, or intend to commit to, in the fourth quarter will drive down the capital ratio to
around 14% by the fourth quarter.
I think you were asking about the APAC business and what we're seeing. Certainly first, if you're looking year-on-
year as one aspect – because I commented a little bit on the quarter-on-quarter,but year-on-year for sure – last
year's 3Q was benefiting from a strong rally in China and Hong Kong equities, clearly supported by enthusiasm
around AI and improving investor confidence. And this 3Q, sentiment was more selective, and this by the way
can explain your sequential question as well. If you were asking about sort of 3Q/2Q, this 3Q, sentiment was
more selective and market momentum less sustained, as we saw sharper reversals and greater divergence across
Asian markets. So I think just uniformly, 3Q25, 2Q26 probably had moreuniform enthusiasm, you saw the
indices were broad based and strong, became a bit patchier in 3Q. And also the quarter itself was a bit of a tale
of two cities. I think you recognize there were periods in the third quarter where some of the sentiment became
either risk-off or at least much more measured. So I think that's contributing to the performance both quarter-on-
quarter and year-on-year.And then as we look forward into 4Q, I commented, I think in response to Anke’s
question about how we see the market, so that all said we are seeing that the structural improvement in the
business is there. So this is informing, the market, obviously with the beta factor, will inform some degreeof
transactional activity.But we think that the structural gains that we've made will mean that we'll still, on a
relative basis, outperform in our APAC business.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Thank you.
Amit Goel, Mediobanca
Hi. Thank you. So two questions from me. The first, actually just coming back on – I appreciate [you] don't
comment too much on contingency planning, but I'm just trying to understand really, if you had to move the
Group's domicile out of Switzerland, how to think about some of the costs. Just thinking in terms of tax, whether
something like 3 to 5 billion of exit tax on hidden reserves is the right kind of order of magnitude, and whether
that's something you could mitigate. And then also on clients, would it be fair to assume about 6 to 800 billion
of Swiss-booked invested assets belonging to clients not domiciled in Switzerland? And what kind of margin do
those clients earn?
And then the second question, just in terms of net new money, I saw obviously very strong net new assets,
although fee generating assets [were] a little bit lower.Just curious of the other 42 billion, how sticky it is and
how much of that you expect to convert into mandates or fee-generating assets over time. Thank you.
ToddTuckner
Hey Amit. Yeah.So let me take your second question first. So absolutely, pointing out the delta between NNA
15
and NNFGA for this quarter, let me tell you how I've been looking at this. So we clearly have seen IPO and other
liquidity events that are supporting flows, for sure, across our book. And I'd say the scale of IPO activity globally
this year, including major US listings and strong issuanceacross Asia, is creating significant opportunities to
deepen client relationships and capture these wealth flows over time. And we're already benefiting from sizable
inflows associated with these large liquidity events.
And that's what's contributing to the roughly 40 billion, by which, as you point out, NNA exceeded NNFGA this
quarter. And as Sergio mentioned as well, we have about 10% of our AUM, or about 500 billion, in other client
assets, or non-contracted or custodied assets as well. So all of these assets represent substantial potential to grow
recurring fees and advisory and transaction revenues, as we help clients diversify and invest over time. So a lot of
dry powder. So I would reallylook at that delta as more a function of the NNFGA itself is reflecting its good
growth, reflecting the strong mandate penetration, and the improvement in the top-line margin support. But I
would also look at the NNA gross, and that delta as representing significant dry powder.
Sergio P.Ermotti
Well, Amit, I have nothing else to add to what I mentioned before. We are not really commenting on speculations
or assumptions or opinions on any of these matters related to a contingency plan, and it's totally inappropriate.
Everybody can come up with their own opinions, but we will not comment on that.
Amit Goel, Mediobanca
Okay. Thank you.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Yes,hi. Good morning. Two questions please. First on the Investment Bank, Equities up and another strong Prime
Brokerage quarter it seems like. But just wondering, with your capital resources being either flat or only modestly
up year-on-year,how you balance incremental investments there on the capital side, as compared to the
opportunity? One is Q3 backward-looking, and the other is where we have seen a change in trends in October in
terms of deleveraging of clients.
The second point is on the US wealth management. We haven't really spoken about the workplace channel in
quite a while, so I was wondering in light of recent IPOs and the potential pipeline, how important it is, how well
connected you are, and the conversion of that? Thank you very much.
ToddTuckner
Hey Benjamin. So on the Investment Bank, you're right to point out that if you look at resources, RWA and LRD
year-on-year broadly flat, despite the business growth, and that comes fromdisciplined resource management
and portfolio optimization, focusing on transactions and intermediation. So less about extending balance sheet
per se, or at least balance sheet that is consuming RWA, and being more focused on generating transaction
revenues in the business. That is where our focus has been, and that's how we have been able to generate
attractive revenues despite the lack of consumption of financial resource to it. Youlook at our client balances in
Prime Brokerage year-on-year areup 33%, and revenues are up 32% year-over-year.And again, we're doing that
while we see the balances increasing, we're doing that with very thoughtful and disciplined financial resource
growth.
16
On the second question on workplace wealth, that continues to be a priority for us to build that up. It is a funnel
that we will continue to develop. It's been, as we've said in the past, a strategic priority that we’ll continue to
make progress on. It's part of the build out that the team is undertaking and one of our strategic priorities, and
we would expect in the future to update on the progress that that we're making.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Thank you.
Nicolas Payen, Kepler Cheuvreux
Yes.Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first one would be on the IB and the
Equities trading performance. I think you're up 21% year-on-year versus your peers up 40+ percent. So just
wanted to know what could explain the gap, is it a geographic mix or product mix that [could] explain the gap?
That would be the first question.
And then the second question would be on Wealth NII, I just wanted to understand what explained the near-flat
third quarter NII after guidance for modest growth, and how much of the fourth quarter increase [will] come
from lending or deposit margin or the mix, please? Thank you.
ToddTuckner
Hi, Nicolas. So look on IB Equities, not going to comment on the relative performance, but we're really pleased
with the performance of our Equities franchise. Generated 2 billion of revenues in the quarter, up substantially
year-on-year.And we do that, as I just mentioned in response to Benjamin's question, we do that with very
disciplined resource deployment. Yousee in FRC we were up year-on-year,and that was despite Rates being
down, also just given strong FX performance. So our Investment Bank is excelling in the areas where it's focused
and it's doing that with a very disciplined approach to balance sheet.
On Wealth NII, as I mentioned in my comments, we do expect sequentially,growth mainly from higher US dollar
rates that is partially offset by mix, which is marginal, but we're factoring at least some mix effects given the
move up in dollar rates. Although the move up this quarter, it wasn't the dollar that impacted on mix in 3Q
relative to 2Q, but actually more Swiss franc and Euro. But we are pricing in some of that in our outlook, that is
[up] low-single-digits in the quarter, 4Q [versus] 3Q. If we look beyond that, and I'll come back next quarter with
a view on full year ’27, but we expect the higher dollar rate environment, coupled with net interest margin
support from the rollover of our replication portfolios at higher yields, to generate similar NII annual growth
trends in 2027 as we were seeing in 2026. So I'll come back and firm that up as we continue to model and do
the work, but that should give you a perspective on the outlook for Wealth NII.
Nicolas Payen, Kepler Cheuvreux
Thank you.
17
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Morning, and thank you very much for taking my question. I actually have only one follow up question, please, to
something that you said earlier. Sergio, you said “Wecan now free up capital buffers held for integration, and
from 2027 we will go into business as usual.” Are you basically just describing the fact that you're running the
14.7% CET1 down to the target of 14[%] again? Or are you maybe hinting at a lower target than 14% in the
next business plan? Thank you very much.
Sergio P.Ermotti
So what we are clearly guiding is the fact that not only that we're going to be at or very close to the 14% at the
end of the year, what we areguiding on is – the reasons why we had an excess capital buffer during the last
three years was due to, as I mentioned before, the uncertainty around the timing and the effects of, and the
potential volatility on capital going through the integration, and the uncertainty over the last two years of the
ongoing regulatory debate. The first item is out at the end of the year,so there is no reason for us to keep excess
capital for that reason. So we're not going to keep any of that.
And in respect of the future capital requirements, as I mentioned before, we have plenty of time to build up
capital that, if and when requirements are coming into effect, we have the earning capacity to do it. And we're
not going to just carry unnecessary capital for the next few years. So we are not hinting at anything that is going
to be then addressed with our Q4 results in respect of the future targets.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Thank you.
Sergio P.Ermotti
So, looks like there are no more questions. Operator,can you confirm?
Silence means agreement. Therefore, I look forward to updating you on our medium-term plans and targets with
our strategic update with our Q4 results in February. Thank you, and have a nice day.
18
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